When Pfizer created the study protocol for its covid vaccines, the scientists knew that PCR false negatives were going to be a problem, so the decision was made to ignore false negatives. The scientists know going into any study where the problems are likely to be.

Why were false negatives going to be a problem? The more false negatives, the more that efficacy will trend towards 50%. Let’s look at why this is so.

We’ll begin by assuming that false negatives are equally probable in both the vaccine and placebo arms, so we’ll look at what happens when numbers of false negatives increase.

The Pfizer covid vaccine study didn’t report any false negatives. It reported 20 covid cases in the placebo arm and 1 covid case in the vaccine arm. These numbers produce an efficacy of 95%. The vaccine efficacy formula is (ARU – ARV) / ARU, where ARU is…